We’ve seen this movie before. Or have we? Because, four months after Donald Trump’s decision to attack Iran, prompting the Iranians to close the Strait of Hormuz, a 1970s-style oil crisis has yet to manifest itself.

Prices for oil and natural gas are high, to be sure. Governments have dusted off their rationing schemes. But apart from a few mostly Asian economies such as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh that were heavily dependent on oil shipped from the Gulf, actual rationing hasn’t taken place.

It’s a similar story, too, with the various petrochemicals and plastics derived from oil. Prices are high, and stocks tight, but there are few actual shortages impacting the global economy now.

Energy efficiency

What’s going on? Partly, the answer is that oil and gas supply is today more diverse than it was in the 1970s. That, on its own, creates resilience. Today, we have high-volume oil flows – from the North Sea, Russia, and North American shale deposits, for example – that simply weren’t there in the 1970s.

But additional sources of supply aren’t the whole answer. These days, the global economy is far less oil-intensive than it was in the 1970s. Simply put, each dollar of global GDP needs less oil and gas to produce it.

Vehicles are more fuel efficient – or are simply powered by electricity, not needing oil at all. Electricity production from renewables is a sizeable proportion of the total electricity production. Industrial processes are more efficient. Ships and aircraft are more energy efficient. Everywhere you look, sustainability is powering resilience. In short, a choke hold over the Strait of Hormuz isn’t a choke hold over the global economy.

The data doesn’t lie

At a macro level, the impact of sustainability is very evident in the statistics. Globally, according to figures from independent think tank Ember reported recently in the Financial Times, renewable energy powered more electricity production than coal-fired generation in 2025 – remarkable, given the attachment to coal-fired generation in economies such as India, China, and the United States. Solar-powered electricity production during 2025 increased by 636 terawatt hours, it adds, and wind-powered production increased by 205 terawatt hours.

Individual countries demonstrate the impact of sustainable generation even more starkly. In the UK, for instance, renewable sources of electricity generation make up 47% of overall power generation, according to UK government figures. Of that 47%, around two-thirds comes from wind energy, with the balance made up by solar power, biomass, and hydroelectric power.

But it’s not just in terms of energy product that a choke hold over the Strait of Hormuz is weakened. And as both consumers and supply chain professionals we see reminders everywhere.

Oil is a feedstock for petrochemicals, including plastics, fertiliser, and textiles other than those made from cotton and wool. In many countries, kerbside recycling is now commonplace: glass, paper, and cardboard to be sure – but also plastics. Recycling of unwanted textiles is also commonplace. Plastic consumer food packaging now routinely contains up to 50% recycled plastic. Textile products, too, routinely contain both recycled cotton and recycled polyester. Go into a store such as Primark in the UK and Europe, and a remarkable range of products now contain a minimum level of 50% recycled polyester.

Circularity is having an impact

So is it any wonder that the events taking place in the Gulf are not having the disastrous impact of the global economy that was at first predicated? The circular economy isn’t fully with us yet, but it’s circular enough to impart a huge amount of resilience.

And in time, this resilience will only build. Transport will use less oil-based fuel, not more.  Recycling will increase, not reduce.  This latest conflict in the Middle East holds lots of lessons – but one undeniable one is that sustainability has had a measurable impact on the global economy’s dependence on primary resources – energy, to be sure, but other resources as well. And with that reduced dependence comes greater resilience.

So sustainability and the circular economy aren’t just about providing a virtuous glow.  They’re about providing useful resilience. And as recent events have shown, there’s little doubt that such resilience is increasingly valuable.

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